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Butanone: The Market At The End Of The Month Stopped Falling What Will Be Expected In May?
May 02, 2018

In April, due to the loose supply and demand side of the butanone market and the bearish sentiment, prices generally showed a downward trend. During the month, the East China market fell by as much as RMB 1,800/ton, and in the South China market, the decrease rate was about RMB 2,000/ton, both of which fell. 8 thousand pass. With the rapid decline in the price of butanone, near the end of the month, the price of the factory stopped falling, and the mentality of traders began to change. The intention of continued low-cost sales continued to be low at the beginning of the previous period. In addition, after the wide drop in butanone, The space for take-off was limited, and the mood of the stockbrokers continued to weaken. Some of the offers began to test up. In addition, some middlemen entered the market to replenish the market. The overall butanone market sentiment rebounded slightly. The market may be dominated by the May Day holiday, but what are the market expectations for entering the May market? What are the factors that merit attention?

From the start of the upstream plant installation, it is reported that Taizhou Donglian Chemical's 80,000 tons/year butanone plant is scheduled to stop over the weekend and is expected to be about 2 months, and inventory is still being digested recently. In addition, the 18th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Qingdao, Shandong Province from June 9 to June 11. There is a 80,000-ton/year butanone plant in Qixiang, and the production of the device is not excluded. There is no clear maintenance plan for other factories, and most production is relatively stable. On the whole, the market supply in the first half of May was generally stable, but as the source of the market is digested and the peaks affect other uncertainties, the subsequent supply pressure may decrease.

In terms of downstream demand, in May, with the gradual increase in temperature, downstream coatings, glue, ink and other industries will experience weaker demand. In addition, the Qingdao Shanghe Summit will be held soon. The Shandong Provincial Government will hold a dispatch conference for safe production work, requesting inspections in May. The group was stationed in Zibo, Dongying, Tai'an and Linyi to conduct inspections. At that time, some butanone downstream companies in China started or were restricted, and transportation of dangerous goods vehicles was also blocked. Domestic demand will be difficult to form an effective support for the market.

Butanone exports have been an important factor influencing the market trend. In May, Japan’s Maruzen device planned to stop and overhaul, and there are good news guidelines for exports. With the continuous ingestion of Japan's Maruzen plant after its overhaul, domestic butanone exports are expected to benefit. However, it is worth noting that the convening of the Shanghai Cooperation Summit is expected to affect the operation of Qingdao Port, which will affect some of the sources of exports and supply to the South China market.

In summary, individual butanone plant installations are planned to stop, and the addition of the summit may limit the circulation of some domestic sources of butanone. May supply is expected to decrease, but the demand side is also expected to shrink, while the export volume is small. It will continue to affect the market. As the butanone price fell sharply in April, there was a strong rebound in the market. Therefore, the price of butanone may not continue to decline in May, and the short-term market will still be dominated by digested inventory, waiting for a rebound.