U.S. economic analysts warned on the 12th that as soon as the Trump administration provokes a full-scale trade war, by 2020, the global economic losses may reach as high as 470 billion U.S. dollars.
According to a study released by Bloomberg News on the same day, assuming that the trade war provoked by the Trump administration will increase the global tariff by 10%, global trade will shrink by 3.7% in 2020, and the global economy will shrink by 0.5%.
Bloomberg chief European economist Jamie Murray and chief Asian economist Tom Olick predict that the US economy will lose 0.9%, which exceeds the global economic losses, as a hypothetical scenario. It is one of the biggest victims of trade warfare. .
Two analysts believe that tariffs lead to rising import prices, pushing up inflation. In this situation, if the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates to curb inflation, it may further drag down the US economic growth.
In addition to the direct impact of the trade war, trade protection will also have a far-reaching negative impact on the world economy. Analysts believe that trade protection leads to less competition and hinders the exchange of global technology and ideas. In the long run, it will lead to a decline in labor productivity and weaken the growth potential of the global economy.
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